Former President Donald Trump is now moving ahead in several important election forecasts for the upcoming November race, getting closer and closer to cinching his spot behind the desk in the Oval Office. A brand new model from J.L. Partners reveals the former president now has a 50.9 percent chance of defeating Vice President Kamala Harris in November. This is a really big development as the gap between the two nominees continues to get smaller and smaller, particularly in battleground states that were formerly strongholds for Harris’ campaign.
According to Trending Politics News, “The ‘blue wall,’ a collection of traditionally Democratic-leaning states in the Rust Belt, appears to be crumbling as Trump makes gains in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. These states were crucial to President Joe Biden’s victory in 2020, but recent polling indicates that Trump is drawing more support from voters concerned about inflation, immigration, and the Biden administration’s economic policies.”
The presidential model from J.L Partners, which takes into consideration both short-term and long-term factors, is suggesting that the shifts we’re now seeing aren’t isolated phenomena, but are parts of a much bigger trend all over the United States. In other words, the more folks are getting informed about Harris and her disastrous platform, the more folks are experiencing the economic turmoil we’re under right now, the less likely they are to pull the lever for the vice president. This is good news. Great news, actually.
At the moment, it doesn’t seem likely that Harris is going to be able to clamp down on these key states and that could spell defeat for the Democrats as election day rolls around.
The J.L. Partners forecast uses a complex two-stage Bayesian process to predict the election outcome. The method relies heavily on historical data, with the model examining economic trends, approval ratings, and voter behavior dating back 80 years. It incorporates both long-term fundamentals, such as economic growth and unemployment, and short-term factors including consumer confidence and Congressional approval ratings, especially since the 1996 election. The model’s hybrid approach blends these factors into what it calls the “Presidential Prior”—a projection of vote share for each candidate before factoring in polling data. Polling is then introduced, with a careful filtering process to account for third-party candidates and state-level variations.
One of the key elements of the J.L. Partners model is its focus on state-level polling, which it uses in combination with national data to generate accurate predictions. In states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, Trump has been gaining ground, and the model’s unique autoregressive Bayesian algorithm picks up on these shifts. The process accounts for states that may not be polled as often by drawing on data from similar states, ensuring the model remains robust even where polling might be scarce.
For example, Illinois and Pennsylvania are considered demographically and economically similar, meaning that data from Pennsylvania can be used to infer likely trends in Illinois. This method, combined with national polling data, updates the model’s final estimate of Trump’s chances of winning. Kamala Harris, facing the daunting task of defending the Democratic Party’s control of the Rust Belt, has struggled to keep voters in these key states aligned with her campaign. Trump’s growing appeal, particularly among working-class voters disillusioned with the state of the economy, has led to an erosion of support for Harris.
J.L. Partners also factors in both voter turnout in battleground states as well as how much of an impact third-party candidates might have as they could potentially siphon off votes from either one of the major party nominees. The vice president, then, is not just taking on Trump, but very disgruntled midwestern voters who are sick and tired of their grocery bill being double what it used to be.
And let me tell you, us midwestern folk are not easy to win over. She’s got her work cut out for her. Personally, I hope — and pray — she fails miserably to get this work accomplished.
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