Panic is beginning to set in for the campaign of Vice President Kamala Harris as a brand new poll has revealed that a major shift among Arab American voters in the country could have a sizable impact on the upcoming 2024 presidential election. I mean, I think Harris had a whole lot to worry about before this poll data was released. Failures in economic policy, not doing anything to solve the border invasion, the bungling of Hurricane Helene, and on the list goes. But yeah, this definitely isn’t going to help matters any.
“The poll, released by the Arab American Institute (AAI), shows Harris and former President Donald Trump in a virtual dead heat, with 42% of Arab Americans supporting Trump and 41% backing Harris. The findings high point the growing concerns within the Harris campaign, particularly over the Biden Administration’s handling of the Gaza crisis, which appears to be a decisive factor for Arab Americans,” Trending Politics News reported.
The article then said, “Arab Americans, traditionally a key Democratic constituency, are now evenly split between the two major parties, with 38% identifying as Democrats and an equal percentage identifying as Republicans. This is a significant rebound for the Democrats, who saw Arab American identification with their party plummet to an all-time low of 23% just last year. However, the new figure remains well below the community’s historic alignment with the Democrat Party.
Data gleaned from the poll also reveals that support for the administration has dropped rather significantly since 2020. Harris herself has managed to win back some people that walked away from the administration when Biden decided to run again. Her current support level among this demographic is 41 percent, which is still a whole 18 points lower than Biden’s numbers in 2020. At that time, 59 percent of Arab Americans supported him.
One of the most striking findings of the poll is the central role that the Gaza crisis is playing in Arab American voters’ decision-making. A staggering 81% of respondents said that Gaza is an important issue in determining their vote in 2024, making it the second most important issue overall for the community, trailing only jobs and the economy.
For Arab American Democrats, Gaza was the top issue, highlighting the deep divisions and frustrations within the community regarding the Biden Administration’s stance on the conflict. Many Arab American voters have expressed disappointment with the administration’s approach, which they feel has not done enough to support Palestinian civilians caught in the crossfire of the ongoing conflict.
Arab Americans aren’t nearly as excited to participate in this particular cycle like they have been in times past, especially young folk. Only 55 percent of them said they are looking forward to casting a ballot in November. We could end up seeing fewer individuals in this demographic coming out to vote next month which could hinder both major party nominees.
Traditionally, close to 80 percent of Arab Americans have come out during elections, but, again, with excitement declining, that number could be significantly lower this cycle.
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