The number one pollster from the 2024 election cycle has just provided a rather illuminating breakdown of just how skimpy and thin the GOP majority in the House of Representatives really is. If you’re Republican, this should have you worried.
Due to having only a four-vote majority in the House, along with four vacant seats, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, cannot afford to lose more than a vote or two while passing bills that have support from a wide array of ideological beliefs from lawmakers on his side of the aisle.
He did get some relief on Thursday when President Donald Trump’s administration announced that New York GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik had opted to yank her nomination to become an ambassador to the United Nations. Losing Stefanik’s seat would put Johnson in a bad position going forward.
“At the same time, congressional vacancies—even in districts carried heavily by President Donald Trump last year—are no surefire victories for the GOP. Quantus Insights illustrated the electoral landscape when it released new figures showing that the special election to replace former Florida Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL) looks like it will be a nail-biter,” Trending Politics News said.
“Voters in the state’s 6th Congressional District go to the polls on April 1st. Although siding with Trump by a 30+ point margin in 2024, the electorate is not nearly as warm to state Sen. Randy Fine, the Republican nominee whose fate is coming down to the wire,” the report added.
Fine, as of this writing, has a lead over Democratic Party candidate Josh Weil by 6.6 percent. However, what’s giving Republicans ulcers is that this is an R+14 district, thus Fine should be much farther ahead.
Trump held a tele-rally on Thursday evening to show support for Fine, encouraging voters to bring their family and friends out to support the Republican candidate.
Weil, a publish school teacher with deep union ties, has raised $10 million to Fine’s $1 million, a stark contrast that has helped level the playing field. If turnout remains in the 20-25% range, Fine is expected to prevail by less than 10 points. Gov. Ron DeSantis hinted at the apprehension Republicans are feeling during a press conference on Thursday.
“They’re going to try to lay that at the feet of President Trump,” DeSantis said during an interview with ABC News concerning the possibility of a GOP loss in FL-06. “That is not a reflection of President Trump. It’s a reflection of the specific candidate running in that race. And President Trump, if he were on the ballot in this special election, he would win by 30 points, no question.”
Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon stated on his WarRoom podcast, Trump won that district by 30 points in November. … We have a candidate that I don’t think is winning. That’s an issue.”
Both Fine’s campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee are still standing their ground.
“As I sit in my [state] Senate office for the last time, I want to thank the voters who have elected me seven times to represent them in Tallahassee. It’s been a profound honor, and I can’t wait to do it again,” Fine said in a post on X.
“Randy Fine is going to be a member of Congress. Everything else is just noise,” Mike Marinella, a spokesman for the NRCC, stated during an appearance on ABC News.
President Trump cleared the way for Republicans back in November. If they manage to screw this up now and in the midterms by running unlikable and untrustworthy candidates, well, that’s their own fault.
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