If the gubernatorial race in the state of New York were to be held right now, there’s a solid chance that current Democratic governor, Kathy Hochul would be handed a pink slip by a MAGA congresswoman. If that wouldn’t be the nail in the coffin for the Democrats, I’m not sure what would be.
A new poll came out this week that featured a battle for the top seat in the state between the incumbent Hochul and Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik. The congresswoman has been evangelizing for President Donald Trump’s agenda for awhile. But she doesn’t just preach it, she practices it too.
Last month, Stefanik pulled her name for consideration in the governor’s race in order to serve as the current administration’s U.N. ambassador. Being a team player, Stefanik honored the requests of both House Speaker Mike Johnson and President Trump by remaining in her congressional seat. This helps the GOP keep its thin majority in the House.
“But if the 2026 map of favorable House seats were to expand, Stefanik — who has indicated she’s interested in moving on from Congress — would immediately top the polls against Hochul. Only 43% of New Yorkers said they would vote to reelect Hochul compared to 42% who sided with Stefanik, a disastrous result for the Democratic incumbent who took over from disgraced Andrew Cuomo in 2023. About 15% of likely voters are undecided, according to the right-leaning survey on a hypothetical 2026 race,” Trending Politics News reported.
And if the GOP field for governor becomes crowded, Stefanik would hold the edge: 56% of GOP primary voters opted for the congresswoman over lesser-known alternatives like Mike Lawler (R-NY) and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, both said to be mulling bids. Each received 9% and 8%, respectively. Just 30% hold a favorable opinion of Hochul, while 57% disapproved, the poll of 1,163 voters found. President Trump fared much better, receiving 44% favorable opinions and 49% unfavorable.
The poll comes days after another by Sienna College showing Hochul with a 44% approval rating, still terrible for an incumbent blue-state governor. The same survey found Stefanik with 35% support among GOP primary voters compared to 22% for Lawler and 11% for Blakeman, the NY Post reported.
If offered the opportunity for someone new, 63% of voters would take it, the latest poll says, while just 23% say Hochul deserves reelection.
“Hochul’s re-elect score further highlights her inherent vulnerability,” Co/efficient pollster Ryan Munce said concerning the data.
There’s still plenty of room for improvement for Stefanik. She’s currently holding a favorable rating of 34 percent, 32 percent unfavorable, and 34 percent undecided.
Munce made a prognostication that the governor’s race in New York will ultimately come down to how favorable voters feel about Trump and Republicans on the national stage who cast ballots in favor of the “big, beautiful” tax cut bill in the House.
The bad news is that history is not on the GOP side of the fence.
The state’s conservative candidates were trounced in the 2018 midterms as Trump’s popularity sank in his first term, leading to the election of Andrew Cuomo. Democrats picked up a congressional seat while State Senate Republicans were locked out of power when Democrats secured a supermajority.
Munce pointed out that the president is much more popular during his second term than he was the first time around. He’s a huge hit with men, people of color, new voters, and even independents.
Of course, Hochul’s campaign waved away the notion that they are beginning to lose ground.
“Elise Stefanik represents the worst of Washington extremism — a staunch Trump loyalist who is gutting New Yorkers’ healthcare and fighting to rip away their rights,” Hochul campaign spokesperson Jen Goodman stated. “We welcome the opportunity to contrast Gov. Hochul’s record of putting money back in New Yorkers’ pockets, supporting our kids, and keeping communities safe with Stefanik’s out-of-touch, divisive and dangerous record — and fast-track her unemployment once and for all.”
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