For the first time in decades, the Republican Party is finding itself at the top of a poll that says most U.S. adults lean politically to the right (48 percent) than the left, which is at 45 percent. Folks, this is fantastic news for our the future of our country. We might just be able to keep this republic after all. A poll like this is a sign that our culture is shifting back after being very far to the left for ages.
“Nearly all Gallup measures that have shown some relationship to past presidential election outcomes or that speak to current perceptions of the two major parties favor the Republican Party over the Democratic Party. Chief among these are Republican advantages in U.S. adults’ party identification and leanings, the belief that the GOP rather than the Democratic Party is better able to handle the most important problem facing the country, Americans’ dissatisfaction with the state of the nation, and negative evaluations of the economy with a Democratic administration in office,” Gallup reported. “The following is a review of these key measures in 2024, primarily from a Sept. 3-15 Gallup poll, compared with the same measures in past presidential election years.”
More U.S. adults identify as Republican or say they lean toward the Republican Party (48%) than identify as or lean Democratic (45%). Those figures are based on an average of Gallup polls taken during the third quarter (July to September) to minimize poll-to-poll variation in party identification estimates and to provide more reliable comparisons across presidential years given the different timings of the two major party conventions in July, August or September.
You can fairly accurately predict how someone will end up voting depending on their past record and their party affiliation. The Gallup poll reveals that at the aggregate level, there are usually a lot more Democrats than Republicans in the general adult population of the U.S. In fact, the article says that Democrats have managed to win presidential elections in years that they themselves had larger-than-normal advantages when it comes to party affiliation, including in 1992, 1996, 2008, 2012, and 2020.
In years when the advantage was narrower — 2004 and 2016, for example — Republicans won in the electoral college if not also the popular vote. Republicans previously have not had an outright advantage in party affiliation during the third quarter of a presidential election year, and they have rarely outnumbered Democrats in election and nonelection years over the past three decades.
By 46% to 41%, Americans say the Republican Party is better able than the Democratic Party to address what they think is the most important problem facing the country. The top issues Americans currently name as the most important are ones that tend to favor the GOP, including the economy (24%), immigration (22%), the government (17%) and inflation (15%). This measure has been highly predictive of election outcomes in Gallup trends dating back to 1948. The party rated as better at handling the most important problem has won all but three presidential elections since that year. The question was not asked in 2000, and the two parties tied in 1980, when inflation was the top issue. The only time the measure was out of sync with the outcome was in 1948, when Americans believed the Republican Party was better able to handle the most important problem (international issues) but returned Democratic incumbent Harry Truman to office.
When it comes to keeping the country safe from terrorists, guess which party takes the taco? A whopping 54 percent compared to 40 percent believe conservative Republicans are better able to keep the nation safe.
Let’s hope the favorable opinions of the Republican Party continues through the election.
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