A brand new poll that has come out of Pennsylvania’s bellwether counties, Erie and Northampton, has some rather bad news for Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential aspirations, as she continues to struggle with winning hearts and minds in the key battleground state. With less than a month until Election Day, former President Donald Trump is leading in Pennsylvania’s two most important counties by a narrow margin. This shows that the times are indeed a’changing as these historically predictive regions are now flipping toward Republicans.
Here’s what Trending Politics News is reporting:
The Cygnal poll, conducted from September 30 to October 1, shows Trump with a slight edge, 49% to Harris’s 48%, among likely general election voters. It’s a slim lead, but one that comes with bigger implications for Harris’s campaign. In a reversal from 2020, these counties, which backed Trump in 2016 before flipping to Joe Biden in 2020, are now swinging back to the GOP. The change comes with concerns over the economy and immigration rise.
Key insights from the poll indicate Trump’s appeal as the candidate best suited to address the country’s challenges. By a 49-46 margin, voters in these counties believe Trump’s policies are more beneficial for people like them. Trump’s favorability rating, sitting at -4, is less underwater than Harris’s -8, indicating that the former president’s image among swing voters is more resilient. Notably, men under 55 years of age favor Trump by a striking 24-point margin, while Harris struggles with a 36-point net unfavorable rating in the same demographic.
Harris is also floundering due to how voters now perceive the Democratic Party overall. Polls reveal there is a net negative rating of -13 for Democrats in these counties. Republicans only have a -4. Democrats do hold a 4 point registration advantage, however, there is a growing number of lifelong Democrats coming from families of lifelong Democrats that feel as if they have been abandoned by the party.
Guess what else is playing a factor in the vice president’s inability to gain traction with voters in Erie and Northampton counties? Polling data suggests there is a lot of speculation surrounding Harris’ decision to go with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate over Pennsylvania Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro. Quite a significant number of folks in the two counties regret the choice as they believe a Harris-Shapiro ticket would have done better in the key battleground state.
Voters’ dissatisfaction with the direction of the country under the Biden-Harris administration is evident, with a staggering 64% of respondents saying the nation is on the wrong track. Trump’s message, positioning himself as the champion of the working class, appears to be resonating in these industrial counties. Among union households, Trump leads Harris by 16 points (57-41), demonstrating a significant shift among blue-collar voters who once formed the backbone of the Democratic base. Trump also holds an advantage among voters earning under $100,000 a year, a crucial demographic in the region.
The poll further shows that key issues like inflation, illegal immigration, and the economy are driving voter sentiment. Swing voters in these counties are particularly concerned about these issues, with over 57% of the area’s voters prioritizing economic issues. On immigration and border security, Trump holds a commanding 15-point lead over Harris (56-41), underscoring his campaign’s strength on these hot-button issues. Harris’s vulnerability on the issue of fracking also looms large in Pennsylvania. With half of voters supporting fracking and less than a third believing Harris’s recent shift to support the industry is genuine, Trump is capitalizing on doubts about her authenticity and policy consistency.
The clock is ticking, Vice President.
"*" indicates required fields
