While the presidential election is very important, perhaps one of the most critical in our nation’s history, it’s not the only race we should be keeping an eye on. After all, we’re also trying to nab control of Congress. That’s the only way to help enact the next commander-in-chief’s agenda or stand against it if it should be Kamala Harris who wins in November.
One of the races to watch is a Senate contest in the key battleground state of Wisconsin, where the seat currently held by Democrat Tammy Baldwin is now almost a dead heat. Baldwin, back during the summer, was seven points ahead of GOP contender Eric Hovde, but now it’s only a two-point lead at 49 percent to 47 percent respectively, according to CookPolitical’s latest survey of swing states.
This particular poll stands in contrast to that put out by Marquette Law School which still has the Democratic incumbent up by seven points with scores at 53 percent to 46 percent. However, private polls from both parties indicate this race is paper thin, within the margin of error, thus leading many experts to consider the poll from Marquette to be an anomaly.
It’s no secret the political landscape in Wisconsin has been sharply divided and is no longer a state Democrats can assume they will own in every election. The Senate race from 2022 was only won by Baldwin by a very slim margin. And while Baldwin is ahead of Hovde with independent voters by eight points (50 percent to 42 percent) there’s been a massive shift — try 11 points — toward Hovde among independents over the course of the last several months, starting back in August. Hovde, who is a venture capitalist using his own cash to fund his campaign, has managed to successfully bring together GOP support and has made serious progress with indies.
In the 2020 presidential election, Wisconsin played a pivotal role as a key battleground state. Democrat Joe Biden won the state by a narrow margin, securing 49.6% of the vote compared to 48.9% for the incumbent Republican President Donald Trump. The close race spotlighted Wisconsin’s significance in the electoral landscape, with Biden flipping the state blue after it had narrowly supported Trump in 2016. The state’s 10 electoral votes were crucial in Biden’s overall electoral college win, illustrating once again Wisconsin’s status as a swing state with the power to influence the outcome of national elections.
The Senate Leadership Fund, a prominent super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), has recently invested $17 million in advertising in Wisconsin according to The Hill. Since winning the mid-August primary, Baldwin and her Democrat allies have outspent Hovde and the Republicans by approximately $10 million. A victory for Hovde could signal a robust showing for Republicans on election night, potentially leading to a Senate majority of at least 53 seats. National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) spokesman Tate Mitchell said in a statement, “After 25 years in Washington, Tammy Baldwin has become the typical D.C. politician, voting in lockstep with the failed Biden agenda and hiding her Wall Street partner’s stock trades from her constituents. Wisconsinites are ready for change, and Eric Hovde has the momentum.”
“This November, 34 Senate seats are up for grabs, putting the Democrats’ fragile majority at risk. Holding 51 seats, they are particularly vulnerable in West Virginia, a state that leans heavily Republican. Senator Joe Manchin, a rare Democrat elected by the state, has been in office since 2010. A loss there would mean that Republicans need only one more victory to flip the Senate in their favor, assuming they hold steady in other contests,” the report concluded.
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