A new poll produced by the folks at Monmouth University has revealed a major shift in the presidential race in one of the critical swing states that is currently up for grabs in the 2024 election, Pennsylvania. It was once believed that Vice President Kamala Harris would probably easily take the Keystone State and that Trump wouldn’t have much of a chance in the area. If you thought that, this poll is very bad news for you. As it turns out, Trump has now pulled ahead of Harris 47 percent to 46 percent. When you include other factors, it really means the race is probably tied.
📊 PENNSYLVANIA poll by Monmouth – will definitely + probably vote for…
🟥 Trump: 47% [+2]
🟦 Harris: 46% [-1][+/- change vs September]
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#5 (2.9/3.0) | RVs | 10/24-28https://t.co/dGiaY3tKcv pic.twitter.com/7BEeq2dQpv— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 30, 2024
According to Monmouth‘s analysis of the information, just a little under half of the registered voters in Pennsylvania have stated they will either definitely or already have voted for the vice president at 42 percent. In another question, a similar number of folks — 42 percent — will or already have, cast a ballot for the 45th president. One of the demographics that Trump seems to have on lock is white individuals without a college degree, which almost half of the voter pool in the state. Here Trump enjoys 60 percent support while Harris only has 35 percent. On the flip side, white voters with a college degree are largely supporting Harris, 58 percent to 37 percent for Trump.
The current results represent statistically insignificant movement from Monmouth’s Pennsylvania poll taken five weeks ago. Support for Harris has decreased nominally by one percentage point from 48% in September while her definite support ticked up from 40% to 42%. Trump’s total support has increased slightly by 2 points from 45%, with his definite support going from 38% to 42%. At the opposite end of the spectrum the number of voters who have definitely ruled out a vote for Trump increased slightly from 46% to 49% and the definitely not number for Harris went up by a bit more, going from 44% to 50%.
“It’s important to note that any movement we’ve seen since the last Monmouth poll is well within the margin of error. What we said last month still applies. Percentage point shifts are too small to be statistically precise in a poll, but they could be consequential if real. The bottom line is this was an incredibly close race in September and remains so today,” Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, explained.
Taking a look at things on a region-by-region basis, Trump is doing about as well as he did in the 2020 presidential election in the red parts of the state. The western and central region, which contains 52 counties, including Amish country, but not Allegheny County, the former president has 58 percent support, while the vice president only has 37 percent. Last go around, Trump took this part of Pennsylvania which accounts for 40 percent of the entire state, 63 percent to 36 percent.
Things are vastly different in the southeastern corner of the Keystone State. Philadelphia and its four suburban communities are supporting Harris with 58 percent to Trump’s 36 percent.
“Factoring potential third-party voting into these results puts registered voter support for Trump at 47% and support for Harris at 46%, with 4% definitely or probably backing another candidate and 3% expressing no candidate preference. Different scenarios give a picture of how the outcome could change based on small shifts in turnout. Just over 8 in 10 voters (81%) say they are extremely motivated to vote this year, up from 75% a month ago. Among this motivated group, Trump has 48% definite or probable support and Harris has an identical 48% support. Last month, Harris (50%) had a slight edge over Trump (46%) among extremely motivated voters,” the Monmouth report added.
“Trump’s path to victory in Pennsylvania is by turning out low-propensity voters. In a normal election this may be difficult to do. For many, their lack of participation is due to an underlying distrust in government itself. Being drawn out to participate in the democratic process by Trump’s ‘burn it down’ appeal could be the ultimate irony,” Murray further elaborated.
So many twists and turns. I don’t know if anyone can predict who is going to be victorious in this race.
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